Alexander Marbler

I am a postdoctoral researcher at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz, working on topics in environmental and spatial economics.

Scholar ORCID LinkedIn Email

News

Research

You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.

Working Papers

Marbler, A. (2025) “When supply chains run dry: Spillovers intensify the economic impact of water scarcity.” Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5354158.

Paper | Young Economist Award (NOeG 2025)

Abstract

This paper explores the role of global supply chains in amplifying the macroeconomic losses caused by local climate shocks. Combining global multi-regional input-output tables, high-resolution water availability data, and subnational gross value added (GVA) for Europe’s NUTS-3 regions, I find that supply chain spillover effects substantially amplify the macroeconomic losses caused by local water scarcity shocks. The negative effects are persistent and regions that are already drier today are the most vulnerable to supply chain transmitted water scarcity shocks. A counterfactual analysis reveals that over the period 2000-2019, the total cumulative European gross value added losses attributable to these shocks amounts to €12.3 trillion. This is more than three times the €3.7 trillion in estimated GVA losses when supply chain spillover effects are not accounted for. This paper highlights both the importance of integrating supply chain spillovers into climate impact assessments and the need for adaptation measures to enhance the supply chain resilience under future warming.

Presentations

  • 40th Annual Conference of the European Economic Association (EEA 2025), Bordeaux, France.

  • 30th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE 2025), Bergen, Norway.

  • Annual Conference of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG 2025), Krems an der Donau, Austria.

Marbler, A. (2022) “Agriculture drives the effect of rainfall on economic production.” Available at SSRN: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4459158.

Paper

Abstract

Growing evidence suggests that there is a causal effect of rainfall on economic output, yet the mechanisms driving these effects remain unclear. Here, by integrating gridded agricultural information, climate data, and information on economic output for 1,541 subnational regions across 77 countries, I show that agriculture is the primary driver of the effect of rainfall on overall economic output growth. Specifically, I find that economic output growth declines when subnational regions experience anomalous rainfall during the agricultural growing season, while exposure to anomalous rainfall during the non-growing season has no effect. Dry growing season conditions are particularly harmful, and previous studies that do not account for seasonal rainfall patterns significantly underestimate these effects. I find evidence that the effects on economic growth rates are persistent and that rising income levels reduce the vulnerability to growing season rainfall anomalies. These results deliver empirical evidence that agriculture is driving the negative effects of dry conditions on economic growth rates, especially in low- to middle-income regions.

Publications

Marbler, A. (2024) “Water scarcity and local economic activity: Spatial spillovers and the role of irrigation.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 124, 102931.

Paper | Slides | Young Economist Award (NOeG 2021)

Abstract

This paper explores the spatial spillover effects of water scarcity on local economic activity and examines the role of irrigation in modulating these effects. Utilizing a newly assembled global geospatial data set that combines information on seasonal water availability and economic activity measured by nighttime luminosity, I conduct a spatial econometric analysis at the granular level of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells worldwide. My results reveal that agricultural water scarcity in rainfed grid cells has negative spatial spillover effects on economic activity, extending up to 300 kilometers away. However, the presence of irrigation infrastructure effectively mitigates both the direct negative impacts and the negative spatial spillover effects of agricultural water scarcity on economic activity. These results suggest that the benefits of certain climate adaptation measures may not be confined locally, but are observable at a larger scale. This paper emphasizes the importance of considering spatial dynamics and irrigation in understanding the effects of water scarcity on economic activity, providing valuable insights for water resource management policies targeted at promoting climate-resilient development.

Presentations

  • Annual Conference of the European Economic Association (EEA-ESEM 2021)

  • 27th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE 2022)

  • Verein für Socialpolitik Annual Conference (VfS 2021)

  • 8th Annual Conference of the French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (FAERE 2021)

  • Annual Conference of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG 2021)

  • 9th Annual Conference of the Italian Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (IAERE 2021)

  • Regulation and Environment (REM) Seminar at Paris School of Economics, France

Work in Progress

“The impact of rural water availability on city growth.” With Stefan Borsky

Abstract
Presentations

  • 29th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE 2024), Leuven, Belgium.

  • Environmental Protection and Sustainability Forum (EPSF 2022), Graz, Austria.